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One, Big, Beautiful Bill: The winners and losers of this new law

Carlos

5:36 PM minutes of reading

5:36 PM

If you thought the book Don Quixote was long, it's because you haven't tried to read the One Big Beautiful Bill.

There is no doubt that the legal landscape of the United States is undergoing a phase of significant transformation since this law was passed on July 4, 2025.

The scope of the OBBB is considerably broad, seeking to consolidate the fiscal policies introduced in 2017 (during Trump's first term), many of which were scheduled to expire in 2025, making them permanent and benefiting many individuals, families, and businesses.

However, it also does so at the expense of the termination or restriction of programs that could be important to a certain group of people, such as clean energy programs, increased costs for certain groups, particularly in immigration and social assistance programs, as well as healthcare and the imposition of new burdens on student loans.

Winners and Losers

As it is a law with more than 800 pages, reading the details is practically a full-time job, not to mention that many provisions are only mentioned by reference, which forces one to have to look for the rest of the information in other laws… How fun… Not!

Fortunately for you, we made a summary of the potential winners and potential losers of this new law, by making permanent or extending certain existing provisions since 2017 (or implemented starting in 2018), as well as introducing new measures or eliminating others.

💡 About potential winners: We looked for sections that mention clear beneficiaries and those with provisions that are made permanent or significantly extended.

💡 About potential losers: We looked for sections with provisions that are terminated, funds that are rescinded, or new burdens/restrictions.

If you want to go in-depth, here you can find the law on the Congress website.

Potential Winners

💡 Beneficiaries and those with provisions that are made permanent or extended significantly.

1️⃣ Middle-Class Individuals and Families

Permanent Reduced Tax Rates: The reduced tax rates established for tax years 2018 through 2025 (as part of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017) are made permanent for tax years beginning after December 31, 2025.

Rate

Single Filing

Married Filing Jointly

10%

$0 – $11,925

$0 – $23,850

12%

$11,926 – $48,475

$23,851–$96,950

22%

$48,476 – $103,350

$96,951 – $206,700

24%

$103,351 – $197,300

$206,701 – $394,600

32%

$197,301 – $250,525

$394,601 – $501,050

35%

$250,526 – $626,350

$501,051 – $751,600

37%

$626,351+

$751,601+


Permanent Increased Standard Deduction: The increased standard deduction is made permanent for tax years beginning after December 31, 2025.

Filing Status

2025 Standard Deduction

OBBB (2025-2028)

Single Filing

$15,000

$16,000

Married (joint)

$30,000

$32,000

Head of Household

$22,500

$24,000

Married (separate)

$15,000

$16,000


Temporary Senior Deduction: A new $6,000 deduction is allowed for each qualifying individual over age 65, for tax years beginning before January 1, 2029.

Permanent Increased Child Tax Credit: The child tax credit, with the increased amount that applied from 2018 to 2025, is permanently extended for tax years beginning after December 31, 2024. This credit is $2,200 in 2025, adjusted for inflation starting in 2026.

No Tax on Tips: A 100% deduction is allowed for qualified tips received, effectively eliminating tax on them. This provision applies to tax years beginning after December 31, 2025, and ends on December 31, 2028.

No Tax on Overtime: A 100% deduction is allowed for qualified overtime compensation. This provision applies to tax years beginning after December 31, 2024, and ends on December 31, 2028.

No Tax on Auto Loan Interest: Interest on qualified passenger vehicle loans is excluded from taxable "personal interest," for tax years beginning after December 31, 2024, and before January 1, 2029.    

"Trump Accounts" and Pilot Contribution Program: A new type of savings account is established for eligible children, with tax-free treatment for certain employer contributions.

Enhanced Employer-Provided Child Care Credit: Increases the percentage of qualified expenses taken into account to 40% (50% for eligible small businesses) and the maximum annual credit to $500,000. It also allows the credit through intermediaries and for jointly owned child care facilities.

Enhanced and Partially Refundable Adoption Credit: A portion of the credit (up to $5,000) will be treated as refundable, and the income phase-out limit will be adjusted for inflation starting in 2026.

Charitable Contribution Deduction for Non-Itemizers: The deduction limit for non-itemizers is increased to $1,000 (or $2,000 for joint returns) and applies to tax years beginning after December 31, 2025.

2️⃣ Businesses and Job Creators

Full Deduction for Certain Business Property and R&D Expenses: The full deduction for certain business property and Research and Development (R&D) expenses is made permanent starting with tax year 2025.

Modification of Business Interest Limitation: The provision limiting the deduction of business interest is modified, eliminating the limitation that applied through 2022 and expanding the definition of inventory financing to include certain trailers and motor homes.

Extended and Enhanced Paid Family and Medical Leave Credit: The credit for paid family and medical leave is extended and enhanced.

Increased Deduction Limits for Depreciable Business Assets: Deduction limits are significantly increased to $2,500,000 and the phase-out threshold to $4,000,000, with adjustments for inflation.

Special Depreciation Allowance for Qualified Production Property: A special depreciation allowance is introduced for qualified production property.    

Enhancement of Advanced Manufacturing Investment Credit: The advanced manufacturing investment credit is enhanced.

Permanent Employer Student Loan Payment Exclusion: The exclusion from gross income for student loan payments made by an employer (up to $5,250) is made permanent, with inflation adjustments starting in 2027. 

Permanent Look-Thru Rule for Related Controlled Foreign Corporations: The termination date for this rule is removed, making it permanent for taxable years of foreign corporations beginning after December 31, 2025. This provides stability for multinational businesses.    

Exclusion of Interest on Loans Secured by Rural or Agricultural Real Property: 25% of interest received by qualified lenders on certain rural or agricultural real estate loans is excluded.

Increase in Section 1202 Qualified Small Business Stock (QSBS) Gain Exclusion: A graduated scale is introduced for the exclusion of QSBS gains (50%, 75%, 100% based on holding period) and the gross asset limit is increased from $50,000,000 to $75,000,000.

Restoration of Taxable REIT Subsidiary Asset Test limit: The taxable REIT subsidiary asset limitations test is restored to 25% (up from 20%) starting in 2026, benefiting REIT structures.


▶️ In this video, we explain the general deductions and credits for most people.


3️⃣ Agriculture and Livestock

Reference Price Adjustments and Program Extensions: The effective reference price for certain agricultural products is adjusted upward (for example, seed cotton from 85 to 88), and producer elections, the availability of marketing assistance loans, and loan deficiency payments (LDPs) are extended through 2031.

Textile Mill and Dairy Assistance: Increases economic assistance for cotton user marketing programs and raises the tier 1 margin coverage limit for dairy margins from 5 to 6 million pounds.

Agricultural Disaster Payment Improvements: Livestock indemnity payments are improved and expanded (100% for depredation, 75% for adverse weather/disease, and additional payments for unborn livestock). The livestock forage disaster program is also enhanced and emergency assistance is introduced for farm-raised fish and honeybees.    

Benefits for Beginning Farmers and Ranchers in Crop Insurance: The period to be considered a "beginning farmer or rancher" is extended from 5 to 10 years, providing greater support in premium subsidies.

Conservation and Rural Program Investments and Extensions: Funding is increased and extended for conservation, voluntary public access and habitat incentive programs, watershed and flood prevention, feral swine eradication, assistive technology for farmers with disabilities, and specialty crop and organic research initiatives, with mandatory funding for the Research Facilities Act beginning in 2026.

4️⃣ Traditional Energy Industry

Repeal of IRA Restrictions on Oil and Gas: Provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022 regarding royalty rates for onshore oil and gas leasing and noncompetitive leasing are repealed, reinstating prior laws. This is a direct benefit to the industry by reducing its costs.

Requirement to Resume Lease Sales: The Secretary of the Interior is required to immediately resume quarterly onshore oil and gas lease sales, offering no less than 50% of the acreage available in several key states.    ◦ Modifications to Outer Continental Shelf Royalty Rates: Royalty rates for offshore leases are restored to "not less than 12.5%, but not more than 16.67%".

Reactivation of Oil and Gas Leasing in Alaska: Expedition restoration and resumption of oil and gas lease sales are required in the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) and the National Petroleum Reserve–Alaska (NPR–A).

Repeal of Royalties on Extracted Methane: The section of the law imposing royalties on extracted methane is repealed.

Modifications to Coal Leasing and Royalty Rates: Resumption of coal leasing activities is required, and the royalty rate is reduced to 7% until September 30, 2034, applying to existing leases.

Funding for Energy Dominance: Committing authority for the Energy Dominance Loan Program is extended through 2028, allowing more loan guarantees for energy resource production, processing, and transportation.

Deduction of Intangible Drilling and Development Costs (IDCs): A 100% deduction for intangible drilling and development costs is allowed starting in 2026.

5️⃣ Military Personnel and Veterans

Enhancing Department of Defense Resources for Quality of Life: Additional funds are allocated for programs that improve the quality of life for military personnel, including housing, healthcare, cost-of-living allowances, education, child care, temporary lodging allowances, and Impact Aid payments to local educational agencies.

Temporary Increase in Privatized Military Housing Investment Percentage: Increased to 60% (from the previous 33 1/3% and 45%) until September 30, 2029.

Temporary Authority for Acquisition or Construction of Unaccompanied Privatized Military Housing: Extended until September 30, 2029.

Temporary Increase in Payments under the Medicare Physician Fee Schedule: A 2.5% increase in payments under the Medicare physician fee schedule is provided for 2026 to address exceptional circumstances.

6️⃣ Rural Communities and Businesses

Permanent Renewal and Improvement of Opportunity Zones: Allows the decennial designation of new Opportunity Zones, and several adjustments are made to strengthen and make permanent these provisions for investment in low-income communities.

Adjustment of Charitable Deduction for Alaska Native Subsistence Whaling Expenses: The deduction limit for these expenses is increased from $10,000 to $50,000 starting in 2026.

Treatment of Capital Gains on Sale of Agricultural Property: Allows capital gains from the sale of agricultural property to qualified farmers to be paid in installments.

7️⃣ Government and Specific Entities:

Increase in the Public Debt Limit: The public debt limit is increased by $5,000,000,000,000.

Funding for Border Infrastructure and Wall System: $6,168,000,000 is allocated for fiscal year 2025 for border infrastructure, technology, Border Patrol personnel, and support to state and local agencies.

Funding for the Pandemic Response Accountability Committee (PRAC): $88,000,000 is allocated for fiscal year 2026 to oversee Coronavirus pandemic-related funds.


▶️ In this video, we explain the changes to Medicare, Medicaid, and ACA healthcare programs.

Potential Losers

💡 Those with expiring provisions, rescinded funds, or new burdens/restrictions.

1️⃣ Clean Energy and Environmental Protection Initiatives and Subsidies

Termination of Green New Deal Subsidies: Numerous clean energy tax credits and deductions are terminated or restricted, often ahead of their original expiration dates.

Included among those set to terminate on September 30, 2025:

  • Previously-Owned Clean Vehicle Credit.

  • Clean Vehicle Credit.

  • Qualified Commercial Clean Vehicle Credit.

Included among those set to terminate on June 30, 2026:

  • Alternative Fuel Vehicle Refueling Property Credit.

  • Energy Efficient Home Credit

  • Energy Efficient Commercial Buildings Deduction.

Included among those set to terminate on December 31, 2025:

  • Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit.

  • Residential Clean Energy Credit.

  • Cost Recovery for Clean Energy Property

Included among those set to terminate on January 1, 2028:

  • Clean Hydrogen Production Credit.

Others included in the termination:

  • Clean Electricity Production Credit: Terminated for wind and solar facilities where construction begins 12 months after enactment. Restrictions are added for prohibited foreign entities.

  • Clean Electricity Investment Credit: Terminated for wind and solar facilities placed in service after December 31, 2027. Restrictions are added for prohibited foreign entities.

  • Advanced Manufacturing Production Credit: Phase-out and restrictions for prohibited foreign entities.

  • Advanced Energy Project Credit: No increase in allocation for the advanced energy project credit.

Restrictions on Prohibited Foreign Entities: New restrictions are implemented and credits are denied for entities defined as "prohibited foreign entities" or "foreign influenced entities" across several clean energy credits (zero-emission nuclear, clean hydrogen, clean electricity, advanced manufacturing, carbon sequestration).    

Rescission of Environmental Funds: Unobligated balances of funds are rescinded for clean heavy-duty vehicles, the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund, diesel emissions reduction, air pollution in schools, the low-emissions electricity program, the implementation of the American Innovation and Manufacturing Act, enforcement technology and public information, corporate greenhouse gas reporting, environmental product declaration assistance, and the methane emissions reduction incentive program, among others.

2️⃣ Individual Taxpayers (with some exceptions) and Specific Businesses

End of Personal Exemption Deduction: The termination of the personal exemption deduction, which was in effect from 2018 to 2025, is made permanent for taxable years beginning after December 31, 2024.

Limitation on Gambling Loss Deduction: The gambling loss deduction is modified, allowed only up to 90% of the amount of losses, starting for taxable years beginning after December 31, 2025.

Termination of Miscellaneous Itemized Deductions: The termination of most miscellaneous itemized deductions (excluding educator expenses), which was effective from 2018 to 2025, is made permanent for taxable years beginning after December 31, 2025.

Limitation on Moving Expense Deduction and Exclusion: The limitation on the moving expense deduction and exclusion, which applied for taxable years 2018 to 2025, is permanently extended for taxable years beginning after December 31, 2025, except for members of the Armed Forces and the intelligence community.

Remittance Tax: A 1% tax is imposed on certain remittance transfers, paid by the sender, with the remittance provider responsible for collection.    

Limitation on Excess Business Losses of Non-Corporate Taxpayers: The rule limiting excess business losses of non-corporate taxpayers is made permanent (previously expiring in 2029), and thresholds for calculating losses are adjusted starting in 2026.

Excise Tax on Investment Income of Certain Private Colleges and Universities: The excise tax on investment income of certain private educational institutions is modified and expanded, and reporting of related information is required.

Expansion of Tax on Excess Compensation in Tax-Exempt Organizations: The definition of "covered employee" is expanded to include any employee (or former employee) of a tax-exempt organization who was employed during any taxable year beginning after December 31, 2016, effective starting in 2026.

Repeal of De Minimis Rule Changes for Third-Party Network Transactions: The thresholds of $20,000 and 200 transactions for third-party network transaction information reporting are reinstated, which could reduce the visibility of smaller transactions.

Increase in Information Reporting Threshold for Certain Payees: The threshold for information reporting (Form 1099) for certain payments made in the course of a trade or business is increased from $600 to $2,000, starting December 31, 2025.

3️⃣ Immigrants and Beneficiaries of Public Assistance Programs

New and Increased Immigration Fees: Fees are established or significantly increased for a wide range of immigration applications and processes (asylum, employment authorization documents, parole, special immigrant juvenile status, TPS, visas, adjustment of status, waivers, appeals, etc.). Many of these fees cannot be waived or reduced, imposing a substantial financial burden on applicants.

Moratoria on Implementation of Eligibility/Enrollment Rules for Medicare Savings Programs and Medicaid/CHIP: Implementation of certain Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) eligibility rules and enrollment processes is prohibited until September 30, 2034.

Reduction of Duplicate Enrollment in Medicaid and CHIP: Processes are implemented to obtain address information and conduct regular checks with the "Death Master File" to identify deceased individuals and providers and reduce duplicate enrollment.

Reduction of Payments Related to Excessive Medicaid Erroneous Payments: The allowable error rate remains at 0.03, and waivers are limited, starting in fiscal year 2030, which could lead states to bear higher costs for errors.

More Frequent Eligibility Redeterminations for Certain Medicaid Individuals: Eligibility redeterminations are required to be conducted every 6 months for certain groups of individuals starting in 2027.

Revision of the Home Equity Limit for Medicaid Long-Term Care Eligibility: Revised to apply a home equity limit (between $713,000 and $1,071,000) starting in 2028, potentially impacting eligibility for some individuals seeking long-term care services.

Stricter Alien Eligibility for Medicaid: Beginning October 1, 2026, aliens must be U.S. citizens/nationals or specific lawful permanent residents/immigrants to be eligible for medical assistance.

FMAP Limitation for Emergency Medical Treatment for Aliens: The Federal Medical Assistance Percentage (FMAP) for emergency treatment of inadmissible aliens shall not exceed the state's regular FMAP percentage beginning October 1, 2026, potentially increasing state costs.

Moratorium on Implementation of Staffing Rules for Medicare and Medicaid Long-Term Care Facilities: Implementation of certain CMS rules related to staffing standards is prohibited until September 30, 2034.

Reduction of State Medicaid Costs: The provision is modified so states must require individuals to use their own resources before receiving medical assistance, effective January 1, 2027.

Federal Payments to Prohibited Entities: Federal Medicaid payments to entities primarily engaged in family planning and reproductive health services are prohibited for a 1-year period following the date of enactment.

Elimination of Increased FMAP Incentives for Medicaid Expansion: States that do not begin spending funds for expansion individuals before January 1, 2026, will lose the increased FMAP incentives.

Medicaid Provider Taxes: The "hold harmless" threshold for broad-based healthcare taxes is modified, reducing it from 6% to decreasing percentages (5.5% in 2028 to 3.5% in 2032 and thereafter) for states that have not expanded Medicaid.

Medicaid State-Directed Payments: State-directed payment rates are limited to a percentage of Medicare rates (100% for states that expand Medicaid, 110% for other states).

Medicaid Community Engagement Requirement: States must establish community engagement requirements (work, civic activities, volunteering) for certain individuals, with some exceptions.

Modification of Cost-Sharing Requirements for Certain Medicaid Expansion Individuals: Requires the imposition of deductibles, cost-sharing, or similar charges for certain expansion individuals with incomes above the poverty level starting October 1, 2028, with the possibility of not paying cost-sharing under certain conditions.    

Limitation of Medicare Coverage for Certain Individuals: Beginning 18 months after enactment, Medicare eligibility is restricted to U.S. citizens, nationals, lawfully admitted permanent residents, and specific types of immigrants, affecting others who might have previously qualified.

Premium Tax Credit (PTC) Restriction: Starting in 2027, the credit will only be available to "applicable citizens" (citizens, permanent residents, asylees, etc.), excluding other "lawfully present" individuals. Additionally, the PTC is disallowed if the individual is ineligible for Medicaid due to alien status (starting in 2026) or if coverage is enrolled during a non-qualifying special enrollment period.

Elimination of Limitation on Recapture of Excess Advance Payments of the Premium Tax Credit: The cap on the reconciliation of excess advance payments of the PTC is removed, meaning taxpayers must repay the full amount of excess credit starting in 2026.

4️⃣ Students and Student Loan Borrowers

Establishment of Graduate Student and Parent Loan Limits; Termination of Graduate PLUS Loans: Writing new Graduate PLUS loans is prohibited starting in 2026, new maximum loan limits are established for graduate students and parents, and they are restricted to standard repayment plans.

Changes to Student Loan Repayment Plans: Student loan repayment plans are modified, introducing a new "Repayment Assistance Plan" starting in 2026, but certain loans (PLUS, consolidation) will not be eligible for this plan. Additionally, the Secretary is prohibited from authorizing or modifying repayment plans not described in the new provisions.

Termination of Economic Hardship and Unemployment Deferments: Borrowers receiving loans after July 1, 2027, will no longer be eligible for economic hardship or unemployment deferments.

Restricted Forbearance on Post-2027 Loans: Loans obtained on or after July 1, 2027, will only be eligible for a maximum of 9 months of forbearance in any 24-month period.

Pell Grant Ineligibility Based on Other Grant Aid: A student will not be eligible for a federal Pell Grant if they receive grant aid from non-federal sources (states, higher education institutions, or private sources) in an amount that equals or exceeds the student's cost of attendance, starting in 2026.

Program Ineligibility Based on Low Earnings Outcomes: Institutions of higher education must ensure their programs meet certain student earnings outcome requirements starting in 2026; otherwise, those programs will lose eligibility to receive federal financial aid.

Delay of Borrower Defense and Closed School Discharge Rules: The 2022 borrower defense and closed school discharge regulations are delayed for loans originating before July 1, 2035, which could disadvantage borrowers seeking relief under those rules.

5️⃣ Other Affected Groups

Unemployed Millionaires: The use of federal funds for unemployment payments to individuals with adjusted gross incomes exceeding $1,000,000 (or $500,000 for single filers) in the tax year preceding the week of unemployment is prohibited, effective as of the date of enactment.

National Park Service and Bureau of Land Management (BLM): Funds are rescinded for these agencies.

Travel Promotion Fund: The annual transfer to this fund is reduced from $100,000,000 to $20,000,000.

Public Wireless Supply Chain Innovation Fund: $850,000,000 of unobligated balances from this fund are permanently rescinded.

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