This week the S&P 500 reached a new all-time high, TSMC makes it clear that it is not a bubble, but a tsunami, Netflix showed that you can make millions and still lose, JPMorgan is swimming in bills but with a typical worried face, and the real estate market... well, let's just say it's easier to find a unicorn than a good house at a good price.
For now, here is what you need to know:
The S&P 500 hanging at its new peak?
TSMC is not a bubble, it's a tsunami.
Netflix wins and loses at the same time.
JPMorgan can drown… in bills.
The "For Sale" sign is gathering dust.
1️⃣ The S&P 500 hanging on its new peak?
The world's most important index, the S&P 500 (not our words), achieved what everyone thought was impossible: surpassing 7,000 points in 2026.
There are several reasons to which this record can be attributed: inflation remains in a “predictable” range, the Strait of Hormuz conflict is looking more like a soap opera, earnings reports started moderately well, and expectations remain quite high.
But, although many are celebrating, others are already looking down with vertigo. It is known that the history of this all-time high will be short; what is not known is whether it is because a new high will come or because the history of the fall will be more striking. Typical market, honestly.
💡 What you should know: This historic peak may reflect huge confidence that the US economy can grow without overheating, but it could also be a temporary response to a future that remains uncertain. Just as I was writing this newsletter, I received this headline: "Trump claims that the United States has good news about Iran, while Tehran announces the closure of the Strait of Hormuz."
2️⃣ TSMC is not a bubble, it's a tsunami
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) beat earnings and revenue expectations in its latest quarterly report. This company is like a thermometer of the demand for Artificial Intelligence chips, and if you thought it was a bubble, well that might not be the case because it looks more like a tsunami.
TSMC produces the microchips used by Apple, NVIDIA, and basically anything with a power button. It's like the town baker, and if the baker decides that bread now costs twice as much and also sells everything he bakes before opening, his profits skyrocket.
💡 What you should know: TSMC is the real thermometer of the technological revolution. If they make money, it means companies are continuing to invest billions in AI.
3️⃣ Netflix wins and loses at the same time
Netflix (NFLX) also beat earnings and revenue expectations. Although there is an atypical event in the revenue that if subtracted, the number is significantly lower. Subscriber numbers continue to rise.
Despite the good report, the stock fell ~9%. This can be attributed to two things: a lower-than-expected guidance and the definitive departure of Reed Hastings.
Reed is a co-founder of Netflix and the architect of the streaming business we know today. He had already left the CEO role in 2023, but remained as executive chairman, a position he is leaving now.
💡 What you should know: Hastings' definitive departure marks a clear end to the “building” era and starts a purely corporate Netflix. The good news is that the company is prioritizing profitability over simple audience growth, and the truth is that it is learning to make money even when you are not watching Stranger Things, Squid Game or, in Andrea's case, all the True Crime documentaries. The bad news is that the most influential compass (Reed) will not be available.
4️⃣ JPMorgan can drown… in bills
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) also beat revenue and earnings expectations, despite global volatility. At this point, thinking of JPMorgan is like thinking of a casino where the house always wins.
If rates go up, they make more despite reduced demand; if rates go down, people take out more loans and they... also win. They seem like the pillar of security for the US financial system, although Dimon (the CEO) always drops some pessimistic phrase so we don't relax too much. Classic.
💡 What you should know: Dimon's vision gives JPMorgan a foolproof strategy: Prepare for the worst, hoping for the best. In his own words “While we cannot predict how these risks and uncertainties will ultimately play out, they are significant and reinforce the importance of preparing the firm for a wide range of scenarios.”
5️⃣ The “For Sale" sign is gathering dust
Sales of existing homes fell 3.6% in March across the United States, below last year's pace. Mortgage rates refuse to go down, and the median price of a home rose to $412,400. 🤯
Buying a home today in the United States is literally like trying to buy tickets for a sold-out concert: prices are absurd, there is no inventory, and if you end up buying, you feel (and know) that you are paying much more than you should.
So buyers are simply giving up while they wait for the Federal Reserve to give them a push.
💡 What you should know: The housing market seems stuck. Although there are more homes for sale (4.1 months of inventory), the affordability problem is holding it back. Basically, we have to wait for the cost of money to go down or for sellers to yield.
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